Home Starts? More like Home Stops

A sharp downturn in new and planned construction

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This morning, the Census Bureau released data about the pace of new construction in March. Compared to the prior month, builders filed fewer construction permits, broke ground on fewer homes, and completed fewer units.

It’s been a volatile few months for these series.

Construction activity plunged in January because of poor weather. It surged in February. I called it a “much more upbeat picture”.

But today’s data shows a meaningful downturn again—and not just in the more volatile parts of the market, like multifamily starts, but in the more stable single family segment, too.

At this point, some context on today’s release in the broader historical picture might be helpful. The rest of this note aims to provide this context, and is for paying readers only.