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Why do People Leave New York City?

Why do People Leave New York City?

In the most recent two years, New York City's population has been growing. But this follows a decade of declining population. In our view, it's more likely than

Why do People Leave New York City?

In the most recent two years, New York City's population has been growing. But this follows a decade of declining population. In our view, it's more likely than

Can New York Grow Again?

Can New York Grow Again?

New York City is hemorrhaging population at a pace not seen since the 1970s—and the exodus shows no signs of abating. The departures are not, as conventional wisdom holds, struggling families priced out by unaffordable housing: they are young, well-educated professionals earning 13% more than their peers who stay. From hedge fund analysts decamping to Stamford to lawyers heading to Washington, the data reveals a city losing precisely the human capital it needs most. This is the first installment of a rigorous, data-driven examination of who is leaving, where they're going, and what it portends for the future of America's preeminent metropolis.

Can New York Grow Again?

The Housing Hangover has Cleared

The Housing Hangover has Cleared

Part of the reason volumes have been so low is that there was a surge of activity during the pandemic. With record low mortgage rates, newfound work mobility, and the need for more domestic space, millions of people changed their living situation in 2020-21. It's hardly surprising that we've had a fallow period—a housing hangover—after the frenzy. The good news is that 85% of the excess activity from 2020-21 has now been swallowed by the last few years of market quietude. There are nascent signs demand is returning to more typical levels.

The Housing Hangover has Cleared

The Politics of Housing: Rent Freezes and the 50-year Mortgage

The Politics of Housing: Rent Freezes and the 50-year Mortgage

Our analysis of The American National Election Studies data shows renters lean decisively left, while homeowners lean right. Recent proposals—Mamdani's rent freeze and Trump's 50 year mortgage—speak to this divide. Unfortunately, neither will meaningfully address housing affordability, which is rooted in income inequality.

The Politics of Housing: Rent Freezes and the 50-year Mortgage

Monitoring Employment for Home Price Cues

Monitoring Employment for Home Price Cues

Income growth is among the strongest and most consistent predictors of home price appreciation. But incomes are hard to measure at a geographically granular level and at high frequency. Instead, we think investors should focus on employment—a useful proxy for the "wage bill". The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides state, MSA, and county-level employment data every month.

Monitoring Employment for Home Price Cues

Approach

We take data and turn it into insights—for real estate developers, investors, and operators.

Data sources

We rely on a diverse set of data—from the Census Bureau to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, HUD, Zillow, to satellite and foot traffic.

Products

Subscribers receive a weekly thematic research article, plus full access to our suite of data reports (rent vs buy metrics, building permits, vacancies, and local area economic data).

Services

We are available for consulting, media, in-person meetings, and conference presentations.

our Mission

Real estate participants are spoiled for data but starved for insight. Home Economics aims to bridge the gap by providing best-in class research and data analytics. We strive to combine the rigor of academic research with the practicality of commercially actionable insights, all presented through a visually compelling design.